Election 2024: The Carter Jonas guide to the manifestos

Housing delivery has been underwhelming, with an average of just under 180,000 homes per annum achieved over the last 14 years, compared with a target of 300,000 homes. A key challenge for the next government will be to raise the rate of delivery - not only of new build homes for sale but also new build for rent.

Labour

• A target of 1.5 million homes built within the first five years (in line with the current target). While this target is lower than the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have proposed (see below), the Labour target will be mandatory. 
• A brownfield first approach, but acknowledging that brownfield development alone will not be sufficient to achieve housebuilding targets.
• A commitment to preserving the Green Belt, but taking a more strategic approach to Green Belt land designation and release in order to build more homes in the right places. Prioritising building on ‘grey belt’ land but with a clear pathway to how this can be achieved with local communities and authorities on board.
• Develop new towns alongside urban extensions and regeneration projects.
• Update the National Policy Planning Framework within the first 100 days of Government by ensuring authorities have up to date Local Plans. Provide 300 additional planning officers across all local authorities (an average of less than one per local authority), funded through increasing the rate of the stamp duty surcharge paid by non-UK residents.
• Introduce new mechanisms for cross-boundary strategic planning, with all Combined and Mayoral Authorities to strategically plan for housing growth in their areas using new planning powers.
• Further reform of compulsory purchase compensation rules to improve land assembly and infrastructure delivery and “ensure that for specific types of development schemes, landowners are awarded fair compensation rather than inflated prices based on the prospect of planning permission.”
• Abolish the legacy EU ‘nutrient neutrality’ rules
• Prioritise the building of new social rented homes and better protect existing stock by reviewing the increased right to buy discounts introduced in 2012 and increasing protections on newly built social housing.

Liberal Democrats

• A mandatory target of 380,000 homes per annum, of which 150,000 would be social housing. This is over 25% higher than the current Government target and is to be achieved by delivering 10 new garden villages. However, there is no detail on where these will be located or how they will implement delivery and require local councils to meet their housing targets. 
• Invest in skills in the construction sector through new technology.
• Encourage development of existing brownfield sites through financial incentives.
• Expand Neighbourhood Planning across England and allow local authorities to set their own planning fees to improve planning outcomes in high flood risk areas.

Conservative

• Deliver 1.6 million homes in the next Parliament, or 320,000 homes each year. This is slightly ahead of the current target of 300,000, and a substantial 60% increase on the target set in the previous manifesto. It is also nearly 80% higher than delivery rates over the last 14 years.
• ‘Fast-tracking’ new homes through the planning system on brownfield land in urban areas in the UK’s 20 largest cities. No detail is provided on what this means in practise.
• Raise density levels in inner London to those of European cities like Paris and Barcelona.
• No change on the current Green Belt policy, which commits to protecting it from uncontrolled development, while ensuring more homes get built where it makes sense, such as inner cities. There will be no requirement to remove land from the Green Belt for development, despite a pressing need to deliver some new housing in these areas, often ones with the most acute affordable housing shortages.

The Carter Jonas view on housing delivery

Greater housing delivery can only be achieved by helping to unlock and unblock the currently cumbersome, complex, and expensive planning system. Housing targets need to be backed up by well thought out plans on how to actually achieve these figures. For example, the number of construction contractors and workers that would be needed to build 300,000+ homes needs to be addressed. 

Taken together with other measures to try and ensure there is proper cross-boundary strategic planning, we believe Labour’s proposal offers hope for an uptick in new homes being built. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats are proposing new settlements as part of the solution. However, all the evidence is that these are difficult to bring forward and will take decades to deliver, relying on local authority and local community buy-in, with benefits offered to local authorities when they accept new housing. This has not been overwhelmingly successful under the current government with CIL and the new homes bonus used as current incentives. In any event, there are not enough planners or practitioners with the necessary experience to deliver these projects. What’s more, the water, power, drainage, and transport needed to deliver these large-scale developments would need to be heavily publicly subsidised, which is unlikely to be affordable at the scale needed or in a sensible timescale in some areas.

Labour has maintained its position on some form of land value capture, which is consistent with pronouncements made over the last 18 months, but it should be remembered that once a range of existing contributions are taken into account, a significant amount of landowner value is already dissipated, and there will be a limit as to what can be secured before compensation becomes ‘unfair’. The Liberal Democrat proposal to allow councils to buy land at existing land value (presumably with compulsory purchase powers) will be extremely controversial with landowners, and one can expect protracted legal disputes.

Conservative – hold the threshold for FTB stamp duty at £425,000 (it was due to end March 2025) and introduce a new Help to Buy scheme. 

Labour – introduce a permanent and comprehensive mortgage guarantee scheme for FTBs. 

These policies are focussed on the demand side, and only serve to fuel demand in the housing market. This means house prices will continue to rise, putting prices further and further out of reach of FTBs, even with a H2B scheme or lower stamp duty. 

The state of the private rented sector urgently needs to be addressed by the incoming government. Rental growth over the last two to three years has been unsustainably high with some areas of the country witnessing 25% growth in just the last two years (the UK average is a 16% increase since Spring 2022).

Tenant rights have also been high on the agenda, particularly with the Renters (Reform) Bill which has been going through parliament since 2023. And although it did not make it through passing before government was dissolved, most indications are that whichever party is in power will pass some or all of this bill. 

Labour – introduce a ‘Renters Charter’. This is similar to the Renters Reform Bill, in that Labour is looking to abolish no fault evictions.

Liberal Democrats – ban no-fault evictions and make three-year tenancies the default. Introduce a ‘Rent to Own’ model for those in social housing - but this does not address the private rented market. 

Conservative – adopt the Renters (Reform) Bill which was nearly passed in the previous parliament. 

Along with tenant protection, addressing the issue of supply in the private rented sector would go some way to helping ease the rates of rental growth witnessed over the last few years. However, no party has explicitly stated any policies that would encourage private landlords or institutional investors to remain in or enter the market.

The private rented sector (PRS) in the UK is largely a fragmented system dominated by individual landlords. However, many of these landlords, whether accidental or purposeful investors with small or large portfolios, are increasingly finding the sector unattractive. Reduced tax relief, rising mortgage rates, stagnant house price growth, and cumbersome, expensive legislation all create a disincentive for both entering and remaining in the PRS. 

To help incentivise landlords we would encourage a system of tax relief for buy to let (BTL) mortgage holders and mortgage interest costs prior to tax on profit. This would at least bring in line BTL mortgage holders with tax relief realised by almost any other business in the UK. 

Furthermore, we would discourage rental caps / rent control as a way to ease rent inflation. Rent caps may discourage landlords from renting if they can’t raise rents in line with their increased mortgage costs or market demand, which could further erode overall supply in the market if they decide to sell. Landlords may also be less inclined to invest in repairs and maintenance and in extreme cases they can lead to a rental black market which is, of course, unregulated.

Instead of rent caps, the government should focus on increasing the available supply; incentivisation for landlords is much more beneficial for the sector as a whole.

Both Labour and the Conservatives have said they will not bring in rent controls or rent caps. In Labour’s manifesto they have said that they will ‘empower tenants to challenge unreasonable rent increases’ but there is no indication on how this would be achieved. Previously the Liberal Democrats have said they would ‘ensure rents can only increase by a fair amount each year’ but there was no mention of this policy in their manifesto.

The Carter Jonas view on no-fault evictions

The abolishment of no-fault evictions (or ‘Section 21’ notices), allowing landlords to terminate tenancies without providing a reason, remains a contentious proposal. Most of these types of notices are only given for severe rent arrears or anti-social behaviour. We remain concerned that the loss of this option may further deter or drive landlords from an already tightly supplied market. The time taken to take these issues to court has also been rising dramatically recently, and these measures will only exacerbate this problem.

While we have seen that some party policies do recognise that landlords’ circumstances can change and therefore there is an intention to introduce a measure for those who wish to sell or move family into the property (this is in the Renters (Reform) Bill, for example), the exact implementation of this type of measure is not yet clear.

We had hoped to see some reform to the UK tax system that would boost the housing market further, particularly at the top end. For example, removing the upper layers of Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) or a reversal of the changes to non-DOM status (they should pay Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax in the same way as UK citizens on UK assets but not on their global portfolio). We have not seen anything in any of the major party manifestos that addresses this though. 

Labour have however said they will increase the rate of stamp duty surcharge paid by non-UK residents, and will prevent entire residential developments being sold to international investors.

Major shifts in the way electricity is produced and consumed will require significant additional investment, and will have a huge impact on meeting the UK’s net zero targets. All three manifestos include policies to increase the amount of electricity generated from renewable sources, with solar a particular feature.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats are both hoping to drive the decarbonisation of electricity generation earlier than currently legislated through policy change and investment. Both parties are also looking to increase electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support the uptake of EVs, with a lack of charging points often cited as holding back this transition.

Labour

• Create Great British Energy, a publicly-owned company capitalised with £8.3 billion over the next parliament, to deliver clean power and reduce energy costs by co-investing in leading technologies. Work with industry to upgrade the national transmission infrastructure.
• Prioritise greater energy independence for the UK through a new Energy Independence Act. 
• Partner with energy companies, local authorities, and co-operatives to double onshore wind, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind by 2030. Invest in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and marine energy, to ensure sufficient long-term energy storage.
• Extend the lifetime of existing nuclear plants, deliver Hinkley Point C, and develop new power stations such as Sizewell C, as well as Small Modular Reactors.
• Maintain a strategic reserve of gas power stations to guarantee security of supply. Ongoing role of oil and gas in our energy mix, but no licences to explore new North Sea fields, no new coal licences, and a ban on fracking.

Liberal Democrats

• Invest to generate 90% of the UK’s electricity from renewables by 2030, including renewable energy projects and retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency.
• An upgraded National Grid, facilitated by a strategic ‘Land and Sea Use Framework’ and build more international electricity interconnectors.
• Remove current restrictions on new solar and wind power, and support investment and innovation in tidal and wave power. Maintain the ban on fracking and a ban on new coal mines.
• Invest in energy storage, including green hydrogen, pumped storage and battery capability. 
• Empower local authorities to develop local renewable electricity generation and storage strategies. Reduce access costs for grid connections and reform the energy network to permit local energy grids.

Conservative

• Support solar in the ‘right places’ (i.e. not on land used for food production) and continue to prevent large solar ‘clusters’ to protect rural landscapes.

Labour

• Accelerate the roll out of EV charge points, restoring the phase-out date of 2030 for new cars with internal combustion engines, and supporting buyers of second-hand electric cars by standardising the information supplied on the condition of batteries. 

Liberal Democrats

• Rapid roll out of EV charging points, reintroducing the plug-in car grant, and restoring the requirement that every new car and small van sold from 2030 is zero-emission.

Conservative

• Ensure the charging infrastructure is truly nationwide, including rapid charging and delivering the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate (which requires 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans sold in Great Britain to be zero emission by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035).

Labour

• Renewed push to fulfil the ambition of full gigabit and national 5G coverage by 2030.

Liberal Democrats

• Ensure that gigabit broadband is available to every home and business, including in rural and remote communities.

Conservative

• All populated areas to be covered by ‘standalone’ 5G mobile connectivity. Ensure the UK is at the forefront of adopting and developing 6G.

Labour

• Develop a 10-year infrastructure strategy to include a focus on improving rail connectivity across the north of England. However, there is no reference to specific transport schemes. 
• Fix up to 1 million potholes (funded by deferring the A27 bypass in West Sussex).

Liberal Democrats

• Develop a 10-year plan for rail electrification, deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail, and make other network enhancements. Review the decision to cancel the northern leg of HS2.
• Work with local authorities to implement light rail schemes.
• Introducing a national freight strategy to shift freight from road to rail.
• Ban short domestic flights where a direct rail option taking less than 2.5 hours is available (unless planes are alternative-fuelled). A moratorium on net airport expansion until a national capacity and emissions management framework is in place.

Conservative

• £36 billion of HS2 savings to be spent on transport projects in the North or Midlands. Reducing the cost of the Euston terminus to save a further £6.5 billion to be used for transport across the rest of the country.
• Deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail, including electrification to Hull and a new station in Bradford. Boost rail connectivity in the Midlands, with £1.75 billion to fund the Midlands Rail Hub to improve journey times service frequency. 
• Specific rail upgrades in the South West, Cumbria and East Anglia, electrification of the North Wales Main Line and a route upgrade to halve journey times between Nottingham and Leeds. Reopen Beeching lines and stations (though which ones are unspecified).
• Commitment to deliver all the schemes set out in the Network North Command Paper, published in October 2023. This included £12 billion to better connect Manchester to Liverpool, and additional funding to develop mass transit systems, improve bus networks and enhance roads in city regions.
• £4.7 billion for smaller cities, towns and rural areas in the North and Midlands to upgrade local bus and train stations. £8.3 billion for potholes and resurfacing, and mayors to be allowed to invest in strategic roads.

Currently, land used for agriculture, along with related buildings and farmhouses, is exempt from Inheritance Tax. It is closely linked with Business Property Relief (APR), which has the same benefits and relief for assets used by a business but does not necessarily extend to residential assets on a farm. 

In the 2024 Spring Budget, it was confirmed that the existing scope of Agricultural Property Relief (APR) for Inheritance Tax will be extended from 6 April 2025 to land managed under an environmental agreement. However, we are still awaiting further details. As the legislation is not in place prior to the general election, any future government could, in theory, change its mind. However, this seems unlikely as both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have stated their commitment to making public environmental schemes work.

Labour - the only mention in the Labour manifesto is to ‘end the use of offshore trusts to avoid inheritance tax’, so we can assume that there are no immediate intentions to change APR. Of course, this is not to say a change could come later, and a review of the scope of BPR is still possible. Yet, while the Labour manifesto states that they will ‘publish a roadmap for business taxation’, they emphasise that they are ‘pro-business’, suggesting they will create preferential conditions for businesses rather than remove incentives.

Liberal Democrats - no reference to APR or BPR.

Conservative - pledge to ‘retain key tax incentives’, including APR and BPR.

Capital Gains Tax (CGT) plays a significant role in the UK’s farmland market, particularly considering the strong capital growth seen in farmland and its accompanying residential assets over the medium- to longer-term.

Labour – no reference to CGT. Keir Starmer has previously committed to incentivising investment, and so it would appear unlikely that CGT will be increased.

Liberal Democrats – commitment to ‘fairly reforming capital gains tax to close loopholes exploited by the super wealthy’. The manifesto does not specify what these loopholes are, but they have subsequently clarified that reform would include introducing three tiers of CGT (similar to income tax), based solely on gains rather than a sum of income and capital gains (as it is currently). The reforms also include an increase in the CGT tax-free allowance from £3,000 to £5,000 and a new ‘inflation allowance’, accounting for gains resulting from inflation.

Conservative – they have presented a low-tax position over the last year and cut the higher rate of CGT in the March budget. However, their manifesto focuses on reducing National Insurance, and only states that they will not increase CGT.

The impact of new biodiversity net gain (BNG) regulations (mandating developers to compensate for biodiversity loss) is likely to accelerated with an increase in development. All three of the main political parties have made promises to ramp-up housebuilding which, if delivered on, will create opportunities for developers and rural landowners to collaborate on mutually beneficial BNG agreements.

BNG for Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs) is currently set to be introduced in 2025, which will likely build momentum in the private BNG market, with diversification opportunities for rural landowners.

Labour – although stating that they will ‘promote biodiversity’, they do not set out any action points or mention BNG. Again, their commitments to nationally significant infrastructure and making ‘major projects faster and cheaper’ could help grow the BNG market.

Liberal Democrats – underscore their commitment to BNG, stating that they will mandate ‘up to a 100% net gain for large developments’. This would represent a major ramping up from the current 10%, although the criteria for the percentage required has not been outlined.

Conservative – no specific mention of changes to BNG. 

All three parties have stated their intention to enhance and accelerate the new Environmental Land Management Scheme (ELMS).

Both the Conservative and Liberal Democrats have promised to channel more money into the farming budget (for grants and ELMS), the Conservatives by £1 billion extra over the Parliament (or £2m a year, rising by inflation each year) and Liberal Democrats by £1 billion per annum. Labour only states that they will make ELMS ‘work for farmers and nature’ but makes no specific pledge for additional funding.

Labour – release poor quality or neglected Green Belt land, coined ‘grey belt’ land, to help deliver on their housebuilding pledges. All three of the main parties have presented a ‘brownfield first approach’, but only Labour have pledged to a strategic approach to using Green Belt land. Much of the Green Belt is agricultural land, and the potential impact is multi-faceted:

• The metric for BNG encourages developers to deliver BNG close to the development site (optimally within the same local planning authority or National Character Area). Land released from the Green Belt will likely have farmland nearby, increasing opportunities for partnerships and the creation of new, long-term income streams for farmers.
• It may make it easier for farmers to get planning permission on their land if located in the Green Belt, facilitating diversification on their holdings.
• The policy specifies releasing poor quality or neglected land, but it could result in farmers in the Green Belt selling their land to developers at a greater rate. This could exacerbate food security concerns if land is increasingly taken out of food production.

Liberal Democrats – encourage the use of rural exception sites (small sites on the outskirts of rural settlements used for affordable housing that may not have otherwise been approved for development).

Conservative – intention to reform the planning system to fast-track planning permission for ‘the building of infrastructure on farms, such as glasshouses, slurry and grain stores, and small-scale reservoirs.’ Use rural exception sites to boost availability of affordable housing for rural communities. However, we can assume they will be subject to the same ecological planning requirements as a standard planning application.

In the lead up to the election, all parties acknowledged a need for agricultural policy that supports British farming and food security.

Labour – surprisingly, the segment of Labour’s manifesto dedicated to farming is short and limited. Labour’s shadow Defra secretary, Steve Reed, has spoken on numerous occasions since the start of the year on Labour’s commitments to farmers and rural communities, and so the sector would have been expecting the party to outline specific policies.

Liberal Democrats – policies include a range of other ‘public money for public goods’ schemes, investing in rural infrastructure and services and ensuring future trade deals meet environmental and animal welfare standards in food production. They also pledge to invest in R&D to support new technologies in the sector.

Conservative – vow to ‘back farmers’ when negotiating new trade deals and to invest in the research and development (R&D) of technology ‘in areas such as fertiliser and vertical farming’.

All parties have committed to policies that could, either directly or indirectly, affect the agricultural sector’s labour market. 

Labour - introduce a new employment law framework within the 100 days, including banning zero hours contracts and introducing more workers rights, plus removing age bands for the minimum wage.

Liberal Democrats – also address zero hour contracts, with a 20% higher minimum wage for those on such agreements ‘at times of normal demand’ to account for fluctuations in earning. Introduce a new ‘‘dependent contractor’ employment status in between employment and self-employment.

Conservative – move away from ‘from the reliance on seasonal migrant labour with a five-year visa tapered scheme’. It is unclear what a ‘tapered scheme’ entails or how many visas will be available.

Labour

• Introduce an industrial strategy, through a new statutory Industrial Strategy Council, to drive growth focussed on sectors such as automotive, life sciences, artificial intelligence and the creative sectors. Emphasise economic stability with sound fiscal rules to underpin government spending. 
• Establish a National Wealth Fund, capitalised with £7.3 billion over the next Parliament, targeted with attracting three pounds of private investment for every one pound of public investment. Focus on upgrading supply chains (notably ports), gigafactories, the steel industry, carbon capture and hydrogen clusters. Linked to a ‘Green Prosperity Plan’ to invest in emerging industries to create 650,000 jobs by 2030.
• Encourage the development of Local Growth Plans that align with national industrial strategy.
• Remove planning barriers to new datacentres.

Liberal Democrats

• Develop an industrial strategy, including re-establishing the Industrial Strategy Council on a statutory footing, focused on skills in sectors such as renewables, digital and bioscience. Drive regional growth through the Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway and Midlands Engine.
• Additional focus on technology, including artificial intelligence and clean technologies, and aiming for at least 3% of GDP to be invested in research and development by 2030, rising to 3.5% by 2034
• ‘Repair the broken trading relationship with Europe to facilitate smoother business operations and investments’.

Conservative

• Create more Freeports and Business Rates Retention zones, enabling councils to retain all business rates growth within a defined zone for 25 years, plus £160 million for Investment Zones. Enable councils to retain all business rates growth within a defined zone for 25 years to finance new infrastructure and support local industries.
• A devolution deal offered to every part of England by 2030. ‘Level 4’ devolution powers offered to areas in England with a devolution deal and a directly elected leader, starting with the Tees Valley.
• Change planning laws to support places to bring back local market days and regenerate defunct shopping centres.

Labour

• A commitment to reach net zero, although the timescale is not confirmed in the manifesto.
• Warm Homes Plan: Investment of £6.6 billion to upgrade homes with insulation, solar panels, and low-carbon heating. Reform the energy market to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

Liberal Democrats

• Cut greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2045 at the latest. Meet the UK’s commitment under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by at least 68% from 1990 levels by 2030.
• Appoint a Chief Secretary for Sustainability in the Treasury and establish a Net Zero Delivery Authority to coordinate action across government.
• Home Energy Upgrade Programme: Launch a ten-year emergency upgrade programme to make homes warmer and cheaper to heat, starting with free insulation and heat pumps for low-income households. Reintroducing requirements for landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of their properties to EPC C or above by 2028.
• Rooftop Solar Revolution: Expanding incentives for households to install solar panels.
• Zero-Carbon Homes: Ensuring all new homes are built to a zero-carbon standard and progressively increasing these standards as technology improves.
• Tax Incentives for Green Investments: Providing incentives for installing heat pumps and other green technologies to encourage sustainable property developments.
• Require the National Infrastructure Commission to take fully into account the environmental implications of all national infrastructure decisions.

Conservative

• Committed to delivering net zero by 2050.
• Energy Efficiency: Emphasis on improving the energy efficiency of buildings with support such as energy efficiency voucher scheme.
• Green Industries Growth Accelerator: To support manufacturing capabilities, boost supply chains and ensure energy transition is made across the country.
• Sustainable Transport: Investment in sustainable transport infrastructure, reducing the carbon footprint associated with commuting.

Labour

• Creation of a National Wealth Fund to invest in jobs and growth, particularly in underdeveloped regions.
• Transferring powers from Westminster to local communities to enable them to drive growth and development. Deepen devolution settlements for existing Combined Authorities and widen devolution to more areas. Consolidate the powers of Combined Authorities and increase partnerships with Local Authorities to improve decision making.
• A new statutory requirement for long-term Local Growth Plans that identify growth sectors and put in place the necessary infrastructure. These will align with Labour’s national industrial strategy.
• Give councils multi-year funding settlements and end competitive bidding.

Liberal Democrats

• Decentralise decision-making by inviting local areas to take control of services.
• Introduce a written constitution for a federal United Kingdom.

Conservative

• Continue the "Levelling Up" agenda with substantial investment in local infrastructure, focusing on enhancing connectivity and supporting regional growth. 
• Significant funds allocated to local infrastructure projects, reviving high streets or bringing new housing to town centres.
• Greater devolution of powers and funds to local authorities to determine and implement development projects.
• Continue backing investment zones, extend to more areas, and generate investment. 
• Launch a Seaside Heritage Fund to support enhancements to coastal heritage and preserve coastal assets.

Labour

• Replace business rates in England to ‘level the playing field between the high street and online giants’ and reduce vacancy rates. There are no details of how this would be done, but it would raise the same revenue as the current system.
• Cap corporation tax at the current level and provide a clear roadmap for business taxation.

Liberal Democrats

• Replace business rates with a Commercial Landowner Levy.

Conservative

• Continued support for small businesses through business rates relief, particularly for high street, leisure, and hospitality businesses.
• Commitment to not raising corporation tax and maintaining incentives for business investment.
• Launch a review of the nighttime economy to address the decline in pubs and clubs and make towns and cities great places to go out.