Electric vehicles: is a fossil-free future possible?

Finally, diminishing fossil fuel resources add to the pressure for change, and has led to car manufacturers putting significant investment into the development of electric vehicle technology. Fuel suppliers are already planning for this, and are increasingly looking to transfer existing assets from filling stations to longer dwell time charging, combined with retail and leisure destinations.

What are the challenges for local and national government?

All of this means that national and regional governments are starting to take up the mantle and create policies to prepare the public realm for this change. Led by clean air plans and driven by integrated transport strategies, we are already seeing several public sector authorities rolling out electric vehicle initiatives, such as the installation of charging networks in Greater Manchester and across West Yorkshire.

The fact is that the public’s attitude to electric motor vehicles is changing. We have moved from the sector being simply the domain of niche, early adopters. Increasing product choice and performance, coupled with tax incentives and falling prices, mean that the electric vehicle is now becoming a genuinely credible alternative to the traditional petrol or diesel vehicle.

In recent years, we have also seen extensive investment in infrastructure and communication technology, particularly in urban centres. This means that short car journeys are now realistically part of a longer, integrated, multi-modal public transport option, and small electric vehicles are increasingly the logical solution.

What is the public’s issue with electric cars?

But, for all these positive drivers, the public is still hesitant when it comes to going pure electric – a number of issues are still holding people back.

Electric vehicle problems include

• Range anxiety: Only the most expensive electric powered cars are capable of over 300 miles on a single charge. Currently, better technology is expensive and not yet sufficiently advanced to satisfy consumers’ anxieties over range and reliability. 
  Battery life: Perceived or otherwise, concerns about battery life and high replacement costs are mainly affecting the second-hand market, and holding back purchasing decisions. Recent announcements about increasing investment in battery technology, along with the introduction of large-scale battery development/manufacturing parks similar to the Tesla plants in the United States of America, may give some much-needed reassurance to prospective purchasers that their investment in electric vehicles is not a major risk. Recent reports also indicate that batteries on early launch vehicles have not deteriorated as much as many predicted. Breaking the perception will, however, remain difficult.
• Reliability and safety: Following a number of media reports over battery fires and sudden power failures that leave drivers stranded. Real or otherwise, the industry has been slow to make a case to the contrary.
• Charging issues: Varying formats of both vehicle and charging point connections, as well as inconsistent payment tariffs and methods, have left a trail of confusion. Further integration is needed to put consumers’ minds at ease.
• Driver behaviour: We are also yet to see a change of behaviour in terms of charge frequency and location that is required for a widescale move to electric vehicles. Current domestic users, for example, still predominantly use overnight home charging but, as more people switch to electric, this will be available to a smaller proportion of users. The switch to work-based charging is a solution, albeit limited, and both of these standard plug-in options require long charge periods.
• Speed of charging: This remains a disappointment to drivers used to filling up with liquid fuel in seconds. And, while rapid chargers are available, their rollout has been slow, and capacity management for multi-charger sites is not yet ready for the expected increase.

With all this uncertainty, prospective investors in EV charging points are struggling with a market driven by short-term objectives. Local authorities also face a dilemma, torn between the desire to provide chargers in city centres and the need to reduce car traffic in favour of active travel solutions.

Yet, if the UK is to hit its air quality and carbon emissions targets, these issues must be tackled, and the take-up of electric vehicles has to radically shift gear. 

Much more investment is needed in the network capacity, especially in our major conurbations, to match the likely significant increases in demand. If, and when, the uptake of electric vehicles picks up, it is imperative that both overall and peak demand capacity is in place, to ensure that outages do not occur. 

Investment in alternative or clean energy generation, such as wind, solar and anaerobic digestion, will all play their part, as will the introduction of battery storage capacity to assist with peak demand supply. Replacement of the first generation of electric vehicle chargers with smart chargers will also help in regulating demand peaks.

Who are the key electric vehicle market disrupters?

From our position of being immersed in the industry, we can see that there a number of potential disrupters for this market on the horizon, all of which are set to have a substantial impact on the way that the electric vehicle market evolves in the future.

Inevitably, technology will lead the way, not least around battery development. We are already seeing vast increases in battery capability, boosting vehicle range between charges and accelerating the charging rate in order to reduce the time spent at charge stations. 
This is only going to improve, and the move to solid state and lithium silicon technology that is projected in next 3-5 years will transform expectations, potentially causing a dramatic impact on the location and required number of charging points.

Similarly, we are set to see massive and radical changes in charging technology. Not only will ultra-rapid chargers soon become the norm, but we will also see over-air charging and wireless inductive charging, making it possible for vehicles to recharge on the go.

Finally, there is self-driving, connected and autonomous mobility – once a dream but now a reality in many high-end vehicles. As the technology rolls out and down through the market, and as the 5G technology that will sit at the heart of this is built out across the nation, we will see a wholesale change in the way in which we interact with transport and mobility. 

Make no mistake, our move towards electric vehicles will accelerate. But that journey will, without doubt, lead us to a radically different mobility future. It will, most likely, be a future where car ownership will no longer be an issue. And it will be a future where driving and charging become something that the vehicle deals with away from the user. 

Steve Hopley is an Infrastructures Partner in Carter Jonas’ Warrington team.